Below is a list of Bitcoin price predictions for the 2024 Bitcoin halving.
In the past, the halving has led to major swings in Bitcoin鈥檚 price.
Obviously, it should go without saying:
These predictions should not be used to make investment decisions. You should do your own research and consult a financial profession before making any major investment.
The list below represents a range of 鈥experts鈥 from analysts, investors, and influencers, among others.
Standard Chartered, in a recent shift of stance, suggests Bitcoin could reach $50,000 by the end of 2023 and potentially soar to $120,000 by the end of 2024.
Earlier in April, the bank had forecasted a $100,000 end-2024 price point.
Geoff Kendrick believes there鈥檚 now a 20% increase to that estimate.
Kendrick鈥檚 reason?
The increasing profitability for Bitcoin miners.
Adam Back, a Bitcoin early adopter and cypherpunk, has doubled down on a bold wager:
Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by March 31, 2024.
Making this bet with an X.com user named 鈥淰ikingo鈥, with 0.01 BTC on the line, Back suggests potential underperformance in Bitcoin鈥檚 last rally due to factors like Covid and various crypto bankruptcies.
He also emphasizes the pivotal role of miners, citing a report that they鈥檇 need BTC to approach $98,000 to break even post-halving.
It鈥檚 worth noting Back made a similar $100K prediction for the end of 2021.
Berenberg, a renowned investment bank, has revised its Bitcoin price prediction for April 2024:
$56,630
This is up from its previous estimations, considering the cryptocurrency was trading around $30,800 at their report鈥檚 release time.
The bank鈥檚 new higher price target is influenced by the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 and the intensified interest from significant institutions.
Berenberg鈥檚 confidence also extends to MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm with notable Bitcoin holdings.
The bank raised its target price for MicroStrategy鈥檚 stock from $430 to $510, attributing the adjustment to both the company鈥檚 BTC assets, now valued at $8.74 billion, and an optimistic outlook for its software business.
Fundstrat, a research firm founded in 2014 by former J.P. Morgan Chief Equity Strategist Tom Lee, foresees Bitcoin potentially climbing to $180,000 by its 2024 halving.
This projection hinges on the anticipated launch of a Bitcoin ETF, which could boost daily demand by $100 million.
With upcoming halvings traditionally reducing supply and propelling prices, combined with a potential 4.0x to 5.0x multiplier effect on Bitcoin鈥檚 network, the firm remains bullish.
Moreover, Fundstrat sees a high probability of a Bitcoin ETF approval soon, especially with giants like BlackRock and Fidelity vying for one, potentially leading to significant inflows of capital into Bitcoin.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital and a prominent Bitcoin maximalist, seems to be tempering his enthusiasm.
It was hard to find a 2024 prediction for Mike, however, he is notably less positive than he used to be.
At one time, he claimed Bitcoin had the potential to hit $500,000 by 2024, so much so that he even considered commemorating it with a tattoo - this has not gone well for him in the past.
Novogratz now suggests he鈥檇 be content with Bitcoin reaching $30,000 by the end of 2023.
Speaking at a Bank of America conference, Novogratz reflected on Bitcoin鈥檚 price action and the mounting anticipation among investors, expressing that such a figure would exceed his recent expectations.
Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp, shared on X.com (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin will likely breach the six-figure mark only after the 2024 block subsidy halving.
Challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMF), Myers believes the market will fully adjust to the halving鈥檚 effects within 12-18 months of the event.
While he leans towards a patient outlook, figures like Robert Kiyosaki and trading group Stockmoney Lizards hint at substantial post-halving gains, fueling the debate around Bitcoin鈥檚 future trajectory.
This wouldn鈥檛 be a true price prediction article without also consulting all of the big three AI large language models: OpenAI鈥檚 ChatGPT, Google鈥檚 Bard, and Microsoft鈥檚 Bing Chat.
I asked all of the artificial intellegence bots for a January 1, 2024 price prediction as well as post-halving price (estimated for April 26, 2024) prediction.
Here鈥檚 a summary with full (very interesting explanations) below it:
| AI Model | January 1, 2024 | Post-Halving (April 26, 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI's ChatGPT | $28,500 | $33,000 |
| Google's Bard | $40,000 | $100,000 |
| Microsoft's Bing Chat | Would not speculate | Would not speculate |
OpenAI鈥檚 ChatGPT said it does not predict the future prices of assets.
However, once I told it this was for experimental purposes only, it gave an estimate of $28,500 for Bitcoin鈥檚 price on January 1, 2024.
I then asked it for a post-halving price and it estimated $33,000 on April 26, 2024. It again reiterated that these numbers are not based on any predictive capabilities but are random guesses.
And how might we know this is true?
Because searching Google for other ChatGPT predictions results in wildly different results for other outlets:
Bard claims to use a blend of known factors and randomness to come up with its prediction. It estimated a Bitcoin price of $40,000 by January 1, 2024, attributing this to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity, as well as hype for the halving later in the year.
For the post-halving prediction, Bard suggested that Bitcoin鈥檚 price could surge to $100,000 or more, given the historical patterns observed after previous halving events. It provided the following data to support its hypothesis:
| Halving Date | Price 6 Months Later |
|---|---|
| May 11, 2020 | $10,000 |
| July 11, 2016 | $740 |
Microsoft鈥檚 Bing Chat maintained a more conservative approach, stating that, as an AI language model, it cannot predict future prices.
I clarified I would not be making purchasing decisions off of its prediction, but it would not budge:
Bing emphasized that its responses are based purely on the current information and knowledge available and do not possess any predictive capabilities regarding future events. When further prompted, Bing reiterated its stance, emphasizing the importance of human discretion when considering investment decisions.
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